Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 51,354
2 South Dakota 46,040
3 Louisiana 39,735
4 Mississippi 39,183
5 Alabama 38,023
6 Iowa 37,670
7 Wisconsin 37,346
8 Florida 36,610
9 Tennessee 36,269
10 Arkansas 35,681
11 Georgia 34,424
12 Idaho 34,291
13 Nebraska 33,796
14 South Carolina 33,518
15 Utah 33,446
16 Arizona 32,994
17 Texas 31,860
18 Nevada 31,536
19 Illinois 30,704
20 Oklahoma 29,924
21 Rhode Island 29,682
22 Missouri 29,239
23 Kansas 27,721
24 Montana 27,528
25 New Jersey 26,245
26 New York 25,876
27 North Carolina 25,203
28 Indiana 25,102
29 Delaware 24,902
30 Minnesota 24,396
31 District of Columbia 23,954
32 Maryland 23,527
33 California 23,249
34 Kentucky 22,763
35 Massachusetts 22,203
36 New Mexico 20,587
37 Virginia 20,550
38 Wyoming 20,398
39 Alaska 20,093
40 Puerto Rico 19,881
41 Connecticut 19,251
42 Michigan 18,252
43 Ohio 17,344
44 Colorado 17,210
45 Pennsylvania 15,897
46 Washington 14,309
47 West Virginia 12,669
48 Hawaii 10,537
49 Oregon 10,152
50 New Hampshire 7,744
51 Maine 4,694
52 Vermont 3,386

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 986
2 South Dakota 975
3 Montana 708
4 Wisconsin 704
5 Wyoming 576
6 Alaska 574
7 Idaho 432
8 Utah 425
9 Rhode Island 417
10 Iowa 412
11 Nebraska 372
12 Tennessee 365
13 Illinois 343
14 New Mexico 338
15 Minnesota 319
16 Kentucky 313
17 Missouri 310
18 Indiana 302
19 Colorado 296
20 Kansas 295
21 Arkansas 260
22 Connecticut 241
23 Nevada 238
24 Puerto Rico 231
25 Michigan 230
26 Oklahoma 229
27 Alabama 214
28 South Carolina 209
29 Texas 204
30 Georgia 203
31 Ohio 197
32 North Carolina 187
33 West Virginia 184
34 Massachusetts 171
35 Mississippi 171
36 Pennsylvania 160
37 Florida 156
38 Louisiana 152
39 Arizona 149
40 New Jersey 149
41 Delaware 137
42 Maryland 131
43 Virginia 118
44 California 101
45 Washington 96
46 District of Columbia 94
47 Oregon 85
48 New York 82
49 New Hampshire 71
50 Hawaii 50
51 Maine 43
52 Vermont 37

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,835
2 New York 1,701
3 Massachusetts 1,434
4 Connecticut 1,288
5 Louisiana 1,263
6 Rhode Island 1,121
7 Mississippi 1,103
8 District of Columbia 912
9 Arizona 809
10 Illinois 778
11 Florida 768
12 Michigan 759
13 South Carolina 746
14 Georgia 721
15 Delaware 704
16 Pennsylvania 684
17 Maryland 679
18 North Dakota 631
19 Texas 626
20 Indiana 622
21 Arkansas 615
22 Alabama 589
23 Nevada 570
24 Iowa 532
25 Missouri 474
26 New Mexico 467
27 Tennessee 465
28 Ohio 448
29 California 442
30 Minnesota 429
31 South Dakota 423
32 Virginia 421
33 North Carolina 403
34 Colorado 393
35 New Hampshire 349
36 Kansas 336
37 Kentucky 334
38 Idaho 329
39 Wisconsin 325
40 Nebraska 322
41 Oklahoma 321
42 Washington 320
43 Montana 289
44 Puerto Rico 252
45 West Virginia 241
46 Utah 180
47 Oregon 157
48 Hawaii 151
49 Wyoming 133
50 Maine 108
51 Vermont 92
52 Alaska 90

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 North Dakota 12
2 Arkansas 6
3 Tennessee 5
4 Wisconsin 5
5 Wyoming 5
6 Iowa 4
7 Montana 4
8 Indiana 3
9 Louisiana 3
10 Mississippi 3
11 Missouri 3
12 Nebraska 3
13 Rhode Island 3
14 South Carolina 3
15 South Dakota 3
16 Delaware 2
17 Idaho 2
18 Illinois 2
19 Massachusetts 2
20 Michigan 2
21 Minnesota 2
22 New Mexico 2
23 North Carolina 2
24 Oklahoma 2
25 Alabama 1
26 California 1
27 Colorado 1
28 Connecticut 1
29 Florida 1
30 Georgia 1
31 Kentucky 1
32 Nevada 1
33 Pennsylvania 1
34 Puerto Rico 1
35 Texas 1
36 Utah 1
37 Washington 1
38 West Virginia 1
39 Alaska 0
40 Arizona 0
41 District of Columbia 0
42 Hawaii 0
43 Kansas 0
44 Maine 0
45 Maryland 0
46 New Hampshire 0
47 New Jersey 0
48 New York 0
49 Ohio 0
50 Oregon 0
51 Vermont 0
52 Virginia 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Lincoln Arkansas 177,749 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 162,189 2 99
Trousdale Tennessee 157,480 3 99
Lafayette Florida 151,389 4 99
Lake Tennessee 140,821 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 48,919 279 91
Richland South Carolina 41,327 483 84
York South Carolina 23,742 1522 51
Orange California 19,157 1939 38
Pierce Washington 12,359 2500 20

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Jerauld South Dakota 5,961 1 99
Emporia city Virginia 5,238 2 99
Hancock Georgia 5,203 3 99
Kenedy Texas 4,950 4 99
Galax city Virginia 4,727 5 99
Richland South Carolina 647 858 72
Davidson Tennessee 491 1182 62
Orange California 458 1257 59
York South Carolina 367 1519 51
Pierce Washington 275 1818 42

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons